A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
